Published on October 23, 2026. The images in this article are AI generated illustrations.
At an expert panel meeting held at the Justice Ministry on October 19, the Japanese government announced that it will raise the admission cap for foreign care workers under the « Specified Skilled Worker » type 1 status from 126,900 to 146,900 people, by transferring 20,000 slots taken from the « Employment for Skill Development » program, the new apprenticeship style system that is due to replace the technical intern training program in April 2027. (Source : Mainichi, mainichi.jp, October 20, 2026, voir la source)
The reason is simple: demand is significantly higher than initially expected. According to preliminary figures from the Immigration Services Agency, about 80,000 foreign care workers were already residing in Japan under the type 1 status at the end of July 2026, and the government estimates the current cap could be reached in the second half of fiscal 2027. Once a cap is hit, new admissions stop, and the planning period runs until March 2029. (Source : Agence de l'Immigration, moj.go.jp, preliminary figures for end of July 2026, voir la source ; Mainichi, mainichi.jp, October 20, 2026)
The government has a cautionary tale in mind: in the restaurant sector, admissions were frozen once the ceiling was reached, and it does not want care facilities, already short of staff, to stop functioning for the same reason. (Source : Mainichi, mainichi.jp, October 20, 2026)
A system under pressure in numbers
The care sector illustrates how fast Japan's work immigration machinery is growing. Beyond the 80,000 type 1 care workers counted in July, the more advanced type 2 status, which allows longer stays and brings families to Japan, has seen a dramatic surge: more than 18,000 holders at the end of June 2026, an increase of over 10,000 in just six months. (Source : NHK World, nhk.or.jp, October 21, 2026, voir la source)
These moves take place within an overall framework that the government refuses to enlarge. The combined cap for the Specified Skilled Worker and Employment for Skill Development programs was set at 1.23 million people through the end of fiscal 2028 by a Cabinet decision in January. Asked about the reshuffle on October 20, Justice Minister Takashi Yamashita said the government does not intend to review that overall cap, adding that sector ceilings are set by weighing industrial demand, productivity gains and measures to secure domestic workers, and that the government will not simply accept the demands of industry groups. « We must protect employment opportunities for Japanese workers and prevent a decline in their working conditions », he said. (Source : Mainichi, news.yahoo.co.jp, October 20, 2026, voir la source)
A reshuffle criticized before it even starts
The transfer comes at a peculiar cost: the care quota of the Employment for Skill Development system, set at 33,800, is being cut before the system has even begun, since it only starts in April 2027. Mainichi describes the move as a last resort measure, and points out that it sits uneasily with the program's stated concept: accepting foreign workers who lack sufficient skills and Japanese language ability, and training them so that they can later qualify for the specified skilled worker status. (Source : Mainichi, mainichi.jp, October 20, 2026)
Industry voices are unconvinced. Masayuki Saito, chairman of the Japan Federation of Kaigo Business Providers, argued that moving numbers around showed the original estimate was off, and that the government needs a more precise plan reflecting conditions on the ground. An expert quoted by the daily warned that if the government keeps applying such stopgap measures, the system will lose credibility. (Source : Mainichi, mainichi.jp, October 20, 2026)
The panel also proposed separating institutional catering work from the restaurant category, where new admissions remain suspended, so that from April 2027 new applications for catering jobs can be accepted under the food manufacturing quota, and adding snow removal to the duties foreign construction workers are allowed to perform. Two more signs of how broadly the reliance on foreign labor is spreading. (Source : Mainichi, news.yahoo.co.jp, October 19, 2026, voir la source)
A structural dependence the rhetoric cannot erase
The reshuffle says a lot about the tension at the heart of Japan's current policy. The administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has made the tightening of immigration a central plank of its platform, from higher visa fees to stricter business manager rules, and the foreign resident population nonetheless hit a record 4.28 million people at the end of June 2026. (Source : Agence de l'Immigration, moj.go.jp, official figures for end of June 2026, voir la source)
Further reading: Japan quadruples its budget to teach Japanese to foreigners, our October 21 article (in French).
When it comes to manual labor, the government is not reducing the intake: it is reshuffling quotas between programs to keep the workers coming while keeping the headline cap untouched. Care work, one of the sectors most short of hands in an aging country, is the clearest winner.
Key takeaways
For anyone watching Japan's immigration policy, the lesson of this episode is that the caps move even when the totals do not. The government will not raise the 1.23 million ceiling, but it will quietly transfer tens of thousands of slots between programs to absorb demand, and care work is where the demand is strongest. For foreign workers, the message is that the specified skilled worker path, especially type 2 with family accompaniment, is becoming the backbone of long term employment in Japan. And for observers of the Takaichi administration, the episode shows the limits of the tightening rhetoric: with a shrinking and aging population, the machinery of work immigration keeps expanding, one stopgap at a time.
Sources
- Mainichi Japan (English edition), mainichi.jp : « Japan to shift 20,000 skilled visa slots to foreign caregiver program amid surging demand », October 20, 2026, voir la source
- Mainichi Shimbun, news.yahoo.co.jp : « 特定技能1号「介護」枠を2万人拡大 受け入れ停止回避で苦肉の策 », October 19, 2026, voir la source
- Mainichi Shimbun, news.yahoo.co.jp : « 特定技能・育成就労の上限123万人 山下法相「見直し考えず」 », October 20, 2026, voir la source
- Immigration Services Agency, moj.go.jp : 15th meeting of the expert panel on the basic policy for the Specified Skilled Worker and Employment for Skill Development systems, meeting materials including the care quota allocation change plan, voir la source
- Immigration Services Agency, moj.go.jp : preliminary figures of Specified Skilled Worker type 1 admissions and residents as of end of July 2026, PDF, voir la source
- NHK World, nhk.or.jp : « Coveted Japan residence status brings hopes, challenges », October 21, 2026, voir la source
- Immigration Services Agency, moj.go.jp : foreign resident figures as of end of June 2026, official press release, voir la source
